Recent drop in number of active foreclosures.


#1

I have noticed a massive drop in the number of active foreclosures for the month of june. I am having a pretty hard time interpreting these results. I was expecting an increase as there was a record number of NTS filed in may. There weren’t that many sales or cancellations! Can someone please shed some light on this situation? Thank you.


#2

Can you give more specifics on where you are seeing the drop? We certainly saw a decline in the filings of Notices of Trustee Sale, for more on that see:http://www.foreclosuretruth.com/blog/sean/june-foreclosure-report-moratorium-has-unexpected-impact-may-be-short-lived
?
But overall active sales are from 111k to 113k for CA from May to June.


#3

There was an almost 50% drop in active auctions(I think I confused active auctions with active foreclosures!) I noticed a significant drop in number of active auctions in analyze section.
Secondly i have been noticing a lot of bidding wars and price increases in the inland empire. There is a great pent up demand, then why are banks not recognizing the opportunity and try to unload their foreclosure portfolios. Sooner or later the govenment will lose control over the interest rates, so why are they waiting for imminent price drops? Thank you for your response!


#4

I personally don’t think banks have much REO inventory to unload (the so called “shadow inventory”. That said I know that many owners are not making their payments and likely should be foreclosed on. I think the reason banks are holding back on that front is intense political pressure. I don’t think that will change soon. Expect foreclosures to continue at this level, but probably not much higher for the foreseeable future unless we see other government intervention.


#5

Sean, I’m having trouble reconciling your statements of low shadow inventory, with Mark Hanson’s Tsunami warning - you probably know this a lot better than I would - can you shed light on this ? Is the Bay Area way different vs. CA in general ?

8-14 The ?Foreclosure Wave? ? Now, a Tsunami of Sorts
http://mhanson.com/blog


#6

I think Mark has been, and continues to be wrong on this point. Mark, like almost everyone else is paying attention to the number of loans underwater, delinquent and in the early foreclosure stages. What they have failed to grasp is the degree to which government will intervene to keep the tsunami from landing. I’m not saying the tsunami is impossible, only that I think it is less probable then everyone else has projected.