Economic Forecast 2020 with Doug Duncan of Fannie Mae DDRE#14

Data Driven Real Estate Podcast
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Join us Thursday, October 1 at 9 am PDT for the YouTube Premiere of this episode of the Data Driven Real Estate Podcast and chat along with the PropertyRadar team: https://bit.ly/ddre-premier

Get your questions answered on the upcoming show by posting your questions in our community: https://bit.ly/ddre-14

Douglas G. Duncan is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae where he is responsible for forecasts and analyses of the economy and the housing and mortgage markets. Duncan also oversees strategic research regarding the potential impact of external factors on the housing industry. He leads the House Price Forecast Working Group reporting to the Finance Committee. Named one of Bloomberg/BusinessWeek’s 50 Most Powerful People in Real Estate, Duncan is Fannie Mae’s source for information and analyses on demographics and the external business and economic environment; the implications of changes in economic activity on the company’s strategy and execution; and for forecasting overall housing, economic, and mortgage market activity. Duncan received his Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from Texas A&M University and his B.S. and M.S. in Agricultural Economics from North Dakota State University.

Main Topics/Questions:

  • What is the Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group?
  • Since your August comments on the economic rebound, what has changed since August?
  • What is the data telling us about consumer sentiment?
  • What is the secondary market telling us?
  • Will jobs come back?
  • August expectations for GDP improved in your August report? Is that holding?
  • What data are you watching and what are the big risks that will impact your reports moving forward?
  • Will housing lead us out of this recession?
  • Is it sustainable?
  • What are the long term impacts of sub 2% mortgages?
  • Pent up demand? Millennials, Covid, lack of construction? All three?
  • Lack of homes built?
  • How long do you expect unemployment to be an issue?
  • What areas are being hit the hardest? Can they recover?
  • Is the push into rural and suburban markets a fad or here to stay?
  • What is Fannie Mae seeing in mortgage trends? Purchases, refis, and delinquencies?
  • Will rates go lower?
  • Will US bring jobs back to be less reliant on foreign entities? Current ESG data shows net exports down to a near-record deficit
  • The Federal Reserve announced changes to monetary policy in August, what does that mean for Main Street?
  • How will the shift impact different asset classes?
  • How will the globe respond?
  • Are there any unusual things you’re watching as part of your forecasts that are different than a few years ago?

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